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February 8, 2004
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Editorial: Strategies In Light Roundup
 
... The following report was filed Feb. 6th by our Sr. Technology Editor, Dr. Alan Thompson as a news item. It reappears here as an editorial. Strategies Unlimited held their 5th Annual Strategies in Light Conference last week in San Mateo, California USA. The attendance set a new record for...
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HB-LED Ramp in Taiwan, Korean and China Quantified at Strategies In Light

February 8, 2004...In his talk last week at Strategies In Light, Bob Walker raised more than a few eyebrows with detailed information on the dramatic buildup of HB-LED production in Asia, outside Japan. His talk, titled High Brightness LED Producers in Taiwan, Korea and China showed that 2003 production totals of epi-based HB LED companies in Taiwan, Korea and China produced and sold 8.9 billion InGaAlP chips and 3.0 billion GaN chips. He also detailed epiwafer output. When compared to what these three countries collectively produced in 2002, this ramp represents a 25% increase in InGaAlP, representing 80% of the world's output. In GaN production, their work took a 700% increase over 2002 and represented 40% of the world's total output. Bob pointed out to the +300 people in attendance that the region is active in various innovative programs such as high-end InGaAlP chips, low-cost InGaAlP chips and high power GaN/white chips, plus innovative approaches to wafer bonding and the use of alternative substrates, as well as leveraging their long-standing knowledge of flip chip packaging, and use of new contacts and phosphors. He revealed details of Taiwan's active Solid State Lighting Initiative and said that Korea has identified SSL as a key industry, and that China is planning a major initiative under their latest 5 Year Plan. Full details will be included in the study Bob has co-authored for Strategies Unlimited, titled Asian Producers of High-Brightness LEDs (Taiwan, South Korea, China) which is already on sale.

Intel, Toshiba, Motorola Join +30 Others in Mobile Standards Alliance

February 8, 2004...The task of setting standards for mobile devices is now in full swing through the Mobile Industry Processor Interface (MIPI) Alliance with the latest companies joining to be Intel, Motorola, and Toshiba, bringing the number of firms in MIPI from the original 4 to well over 30. MIPI was organized specifically to establish global standards for key semiconductor technologies for mobile devices. The group was founded last summer by Texas Instruments Inc., STMicroelectronics N.V., ARM Ltd. and Nokia Corp. to enable users of a wide variety of mobile devices to use common online services and software. Until now, companies such as Motorola and Intel had stayed out of the group because it aims to turn technology based on TI's OMAP application processor, which is used in Nokia's devices, into the global standard. “Our growing membership base sends a clear signal that the mobile industry supports the objectives of our organization,” said Tom Vial, Chairman of the Board, MIPI Alliance, Inc. “The diversity of the companies involved leaves little doubt that the MIPI Alliance is an open organization, and the specifications we produce will be widely adopted.” More details are included in the MIPI release

RFMD Sees Continued Rise of Handset Market and More Consolidation

February 8, 2004...At a recent presentation to the annual Thomas Weisel Partners Conference in San Francisco, RF Micro Devices of Greensboro, North Carolina USA reported that they expect their sales in the handset market in 2004 to increase in excess of the rate of growth of the overall handset market, and in doing so, that they will continue to increase their dollar content, per handset manufactured. "Our dollar content per handset manufactured has increased by approximately 40 percent since 2001," said Dean Priddy, CFO of RFMD. "That will continue as we bring more functionality into power amplifiers and take share in cellular transceivers, which is a market that is ready for consolidation." Dollar content per handset manufactured is calculated by dividing RFMD's annual handset sales by the total number of handsets manufactured each year. Priddy further commented on RFMD's power amp market share: "We're in one out of every two phones manufactured, and we intend to gain market share in current- and next-generation PAs this calendar year. We are absolutely the leader in next-generation air interface standards, and there is no company with higher market share in GPRS, EDGE or WCDMA than RF Micro Devices." More details are available via the replay of the presentation and in the company news release.

II-VI and SET Sign Joint Distribution Agreement for GaN on SiC Substrates

February 8, 2004...II-VI Inc. of Saxonburg, Pennsylvania USA and Sensor Electronic Technology Inc. (SET) of Columbia, South Carolina USA have entered into a joint marketing and sales agreement for III-Nitride based epitaxial wafers produced by SET on Silicon Carbide substrates manufactured by II-VI. The two companies will jointly market their products in the United States, Japan, and Germany using II-VI's marketing and distribution infrastructure. The initial product portfolio includes quaternary AlInGaN-based 2" and 3" diameter epitaxial wafers on 6H-SiC substrates and also 2", 3" and 4" diameter epitaxial wafers on sapphire substrates. "This distributorship agreement with a large materials manufacturer such as II-VI gives our company an opportunity to reach out to overseas markets through a well-established marketing and sales infrastructure in a very cost efficient way", says Dr. Remis Gaska, President and CEO of SET. "It is an integral part of our strategy to become a leading source of III-Nitride based epitaxial wafer technology on silicon carbide substrates." Company news release

Emcore Sees Pickup in Broadband and Digital Fiber

February 8, 2004...Emcore Corporation of Somerset, New Jersey USA enjoyed a revenue increase of 146% from their newly focused specialties now that the company is able to concentrate solely on the epi, device, and module business for broadband and wireless communications. Revenues reached record levels of $23.1 million in Q-1 and they expect to see second quarter revenues somewhere between $24-26 million. "We are seeing continued signs of improvement in the fiber and broadband communications market and feel our performance during the quarter is an indication markets are rebounding,” commented Reuben F. Richards, Jr., President & CEO. “The quarter came in better than anticipated on both a revenue and gross profit basis. We are seeing strong revenue growth in many of our product lines, especially broadband and digital fiber, as a result of significant new product introductions with broad customer acceptance." He added that the company will continue to focus on " continuing to improve gross margins by improving yields and supply chain management, as well as other operating efficiencies.” The company reported on Feb. 5th and a replay of their conference call to analysts will be available on the Emcore website until Feb. 12. Company news release

Osram Opto Lights the Way to New Automotive Apps

February 8, 2004...Inside the next gen autos and outside as well, Osram Opto's latest application rollouts for the automotive industry are impressive. In conjunction with the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Osram unveiled two applications. The one application falls into the "designer interior" category, allowing a driver to choose any one of 127 colors for the instrument backlighting on the new 300 horsepower Ford Mustang. The selection of colors is made possible by controlling specific combinations of red, blue and green LEDs, and at the push of a button, drivers can adjust the color to suit their own personal preferences and color perception, thanks to Osram's 6leadMultiLEDs. In addition to Ford's Mustang, the new offering is also on the Ford GT and the Shelby Cobra. Details are in the company news release (English) and we've also posted a German version. Upfront and outside, Osram Opto also showed their latest white LED headlights on Hyundai’s HCD8 concept car. “The 'Hyundai HCD8' concept vehicle provides the perfect showcase for OSRAM Opto Semiconductors as one of the few companies that can provide a full SMT product portfolio,” said Tom Shottes, Vice President of North American LED Products. Osram HB-LEDs also appeared as tail lights and brake lights. Company news release (English) and German version

LRC Launches Online Seminar Series

February 8, 2004...The Lighting Research Center (LRC) at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) in Troy, New York USA has launched a new online educational seminar series targeted to help architects, engineers, facility managers, building owners, developers, energy service professionals, and other professionals needing a better understanding of light and lighting. Cleverly calling it Live! from the LRC, the online series will bring lighting experts via the Internet to participants’ desktops to provide the latest information on important lighting topics. All that is needed to participate in these seminars is an Internet-connected computer and a telephone. All participants will receive two university continuing education units (CEUs) for each seminar attended. Dates and topics slated, and details of how to access the information (the seminars are priced at $100 each) are included in the LRC news release.

LayTec's Expanding

February 8, 2004...LayTec of Berlin, Germany reported an extremely successful year for their in-situ sensor business, especially for the GaN production sensor they've dubbed EpiTT. As a result, the company is now rebuilding their offices at Helmholtzstrasse in Berlin, which will mean more office space for new employees, a bigger laboratory for testing new devices and an increased production area to meet the deadlines for the constantly growing amount of new orders. They're planning to employ 4 new staff members (a manager of production and logistics, a key-account manager, a customer support person and a student assistant). In further news from LayTec, which is included in their monthly newsletter, the company noted that EpiTT has established itself as an advanced sensor for applications in MOCVD mass production of GaN and GaAs-based LEDs, and that they've now installed it in their MBE system, a Riber 49, at Nanosemiconductor NSC GmbH in Dortmund, Germany. The company is using their Riber, with EpiTT, to produce quantum dot epiwafers. Dr. Kovsh (Chief Technology Officer at NSC) and Dr. Krestnikov (Product Manager) will apply the EpiTT for an improved wafer temperature control during the growth of long-wavelength (1.3 to 1.5 micron) QD lasers based on GaAs. The formation of QDs is known to be very sensitive to substrate temperature changes, and the precise control LayTec's sensors provide helps control film thickness for a very accurate DBR tuning, deemed indispensable to VCSEL applications at NSC.

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The McDonald Report
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Strategies In Light Roundup

February 8, 2004...The following report was filed Feb. 6th by our Sr. Technology Editor, Dr. Alan Thompson as a news item. It reappears here as an editorial. Strategies Unlimited held their 5th Annual Strategies in Light Conference last week in San Mateo, California USA. The attendance set a new record for this popular event, drawing more than 300 attendees, and the mood was distinctly upbeat. The reason for this is well recognized by those who have been following the fortunes of the HB-LED industry, which was reinforced by Dr. Robert Steele's traditional leadoff talk covering the HB-LED market and forecast. Compared to most of the semiconductor industry, the HB-LED segment did very well in 2003 with a 47% revenue growth (in US$) over 2002 to $2.7B. This rate matches the average CAGR for this segment over the last 8 years. Bob explained that this rate would moderate over the next 5 years as some applications mature and ASPs continue their inexorable decline, but would still reach $6B in 2008. Our industry, which was nibbling at niches 10 years ago, has become a force to be reckoned with! And as major penetration into large applications such as automotive and solid state lighting occur in the 5 to 10 year time frame, the totals will keep climbing. No wonder the conference participants were upbeat! In 2003, about 50% of the revenues came from mobile appliance applications, such as cell phone keypad lighting and small LCD screen backlighting in phones and cameras. Most of these LEDs were GaN based, and these materials increased at a faster clip than the other materials.

The sharp increase in production capacity in Taiwan, Korea and China was addressed by Dr. Robert Walker, who summarized the results of a new report he co-authored for Strategies Unlimited. The study will be made available later this month (see www.strategies-u.com for details). Bob showed that HB-LED producers in these three countries increased their InGaAlP and GaN chip output by 25 and 700% respectively over 2002, and now generate 80 and 40%, respectively, of the worlds total output. He also pointed out that the region is rapidly transitioning from copying to innovating and that we can expect premium products at low prices as the volumes increase further.

Moving on to applications, there were interesting talks by Hella and Schfenacker Research on automobiles. LEDs are penetrating into all interior and exterior positions, but headlights are not yet realizable (except in show cars that are not street legal). The first use of LEDs for daylight running lights in a production car (the new Audi A6) shows progress but differentiates the needs of lights for noticing (CHMSLs, turn signals and daylight running) vs illuminating (headlights). In the latter case the beam must be precisely shaped and having a small source makes this task much easier. Typical halogen filaments and HID arcs are a few square mm in size and emit kilolumens. To reach the same light output with LEDs currently requires many 1mm sq die occupying a much larger source area. This leads to poor cut-off and large (and often expensive) optics. For this application we need higher brightness (more lumens/area) and need to get the heat out. The speakers who addressed this topic agreed that initial introductions should happen in the 2007-8 timeframe in a few luxury cars or SUVs where cost and size are not so important. Other applications covered included trends in LED use in cell phones by J.J. Jung of LG Innotek, a novel large screen video display by New Millenium Media International, and lighting by OptoLum and City Design Group.

The solid state lighting initiatives in the USA and Japan were outlined, with the former still looking for a budget and the latter starting a second 5 year program. A panel session on High Power LEDs saw representatives from Cree, Lumileds, Nichia, Osram, and Toyoda Gosei discussing their latest advances, particularly for white. Progress continues at a good pace and problems with reliability, color balance, and heat extraction are being tackled successfully. Luminous efficacies are generally in the 30-50l/W range for warm white and multi-watt devices are making their way into production. Specific costs were not given... but all agreed that these have to decrease dramatically to move out of the niche applications that are currently well served by LED technology Steve Johnson of LBL gave a status report on OLED technology, which has the potential to displace LEDs in some current and proposed applications, principally small screens in mobile appliances and for backlighting in some applications. We all need to be aware of this technology's strong points, as well as other competitors such as flexible EL lights for cell phone keypad lighting. The conference concluded with a session covering drivers (by Supertex), reliability prediction (RPI) and trends in LED production equipment (Veeco).

Haitz's law: I'd like to finish this report by covering one of the most entertaining and thought provoking presentations, that of industry veteran Dr. Roland Haitz, who spent many years working on LEDs at HP/Agilent/Lumileds. His topic was the next 20 years of SSL. He examined some of the physics limitations on improvements and pointed out that historical improvements (Haitz's law) will probably continue for some time, leading to his statement that "By 2025, LEDs will be the dominant lighting technology". We have a lot to do before then, but the future is definitely bright! --Alan Thompson, Sr. Technology Editor, CompoundSemi News

If you have questions about the solid state lighting and compound semiconductor industries or have news or views to share, I'm Jo Ann McDonald, Editor of LIGHTimes and CompoundSemi News.
Feel free to contact me directly, anytime.
My direct tel at the ranch is
+1-325-463-5345

From time to time Jo Ann may comment on companies in which she holds a modest investment - be sure to read her disclosure at some point in time...

 

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